Lemme explain what's really going on.
Correct horse battery staples. It's all about the correct horse battery staples.
I know we hear a lot about conspiracy theories these days. The term itself has become a pejorative, a way to discount and dismiss an idea. They range from the complexity and density of Q-anon, whatever that is, to dark explanations for why Coca Cola created Classic Coke. They all fit the facts because they are fitted to the facts like a tailor made suit.
The hallmark of buying into to one is the relief of the “well, that all makes sense now” moment. One puts on the armor of a new conceptual view with which to fit the world, and the most dangerous conspiracy theories are the ones which cast adherents as victims who have been exploited by some secretive, largely unseen, malevolent aggressor.
Conspiracy theories “explain” something for which a more probable, but usually unsatisfactory, explanation exists. Coke was losing market share to Pepsi, so they made a new product that tasted more like Pepsi. They failed to account for the emotional connection to the original formula. They failed to take note of consumer nostalgia for the original formula. They misunderstood their customers. In short, they messed up.
People find it hard to believe that such a big and successful company could simply get something so central to their business so wrong. It seems naive to accept that they couldn’t apply all their resources to doing a better job. Making a soft drink that people prefer is their central business purpose. They have essentially unlimited resources for perfecting the task, and they could have scarcely gotten it more wrong. Someone somewhere made the wrong call. Hmm. Is that what really happened?
Probably.
When the Space Shuttle Challenger was destroyed within a minute or so of lift-off a hugely expensive, transparent, and detailed investigation revealed that it all happened because someone got impatient. They launched when it was too cold outside. They knew cold was a safety problem, they didn’t know how much.
See how unsatisfying that is? This is the fertile ground upon which conspiracy theories grow.
One of the most unsatisfying things about my deep dive into East Asian politics as an observer from afar is the extent to which internal political divisions hog-tie and disable the progress of groups trying to address the same problems. Nothing more than the degree to which one trusts in the good will of the Chinese government distinguishes all these groups from one another. They all otherwise want the same thing.
Every group from left to right wants for Hong Kong a safe, stable, pleasant place to engage in meaningful activities, means to resolve disputes fairly, and enough material wealth to be comfortable. The differences among them are all about the degree to which they believe they should work with, or against, the Chinese government to achieve this.
Of course, these degrees of trust, running from none to total, are significant differences, but the end point is the same—peace and justice for Hong Kong. Why can’t that be a unifying force? Why can’t these fractured groups align around a shared purpose?
I have had a look into two of the more vocal subgroups within the public Hong Kong diaspora. One subgroup is called (by others) “tankies.” This is an allusion to “send in the tanks” and it represents those who lean to more trust in the mainland Chinese government. Their view is that public order is more important than persistent adherence to British colonial political values.
Another subgroup is called (by the tankies and others) “boba liberals.” This is an allusion to boba tea, the Taiwanese style of flavored iced teas with the tapioca pearls—tastes great, but full of sugar and not actually that good for you. Boba liberals are more interested in persistent political autonomy for Hong Kong, however problematic that may be, because it will always be better than what the current Mainland Chinese government will do with unchecked power.
I have no idea who is right. I don’t think there is any way I could know. Knowing for certain which is better requires knowing the future, and everyone is just guessing about that, so I’m not sure anyone really knows what to do about Hong Kong.
However, after exposing myself to the thinking and discussions from both of these sub-groups, I can assure you of one thing. They both want Hong Kong to be peaceful and just. Their exchanges are so vicious that you would think they have absolutely nothing in common.
Tankies seem to believe that boba liberals are truly conspiring with colonialist and white supremacist forces in the US and elsewhere around the world to keep the people of Hong Kong under their thumb as a Capitalist economic engine. They hugely discount any genuine boba liberal polemics as a smokescreen for a deeper conspiracy with the CIA, White Supremacists, Wall Street, and the ugliest aspects of the current US government.
Boba liberals see the tankies as essential Chinese Communist Party shills, no more interested in the well-being of the people of Hong Kong than they are of the well-being the Uyghurs (the muslim people in Western China widely reported to be subject to institutionalized Mainland Chinese government violence). They hugely discount any genuine tankie polemics as a smokescreen for a conspiracy to spread propaganda in concert with the Mainland Chinese government.
Either group is happy to unfold detailed and extensive conspiratorial evidence consistent with the real motives they attribute on the other. Each group seems convinced that only they really understand what is happening, and no assertion by the other group can possibly even approach any credibility.
Imagine Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Devin Nunes in a room together. Would they even agree what time it is?
I believe what keeps them apart, what keeps them from talking to each other at all, are these conspiracy theories. I only mention the few I’ve read about here, those more versed in these issues might uncover many more, but it wouldn’t change the facts on the ground. These subgroups are split, and that splits the power of the advocates for the people of Hong Kong, making each of them less powerful.
The truth is, of course, since we are talking about the future of Hong Kong, that no one knows what is going to happen or what the unintended consequences of anything, including the imposition of the National Security Law, will be. However, Hong Kong could use the care and attention of all members of the diaspora, at home and abroad, fused for a common purpose, while this transition unfolds.
Without the conspiracy theories, that seems much more plausible.
Similar splits are happening the US around the Black Lives Matter movement. Conspiracy theories abound. Some of them are plants for White Supremacists, others are amoral anarchists who are just on the bandwagon so they can bust shit up, still others are looking to cash-in, others seeking legitimacy for their own movements, etc., ad nauseam.
Conspiracy theories drive all this. Otherwise, they would all be mindful of their shared purpose—an end to lawless police violence selectively visited upon people of color. Hell, the cops I know support that goal.
But, instead of integrating and interweaving their differences to support the task at hand, they fight with each other, which diminishes the power of all of them. We could actually get this done without bothering our currently absent executive branch of government without the conspiracy theories busting everyone apart.
But, that would require sitting with a much more difficult truth, that we have a broken system for maintaining public order that needs overhaul that no one can currently get their mind completely around. It would be really powerful if we could all agree on what to do next. Just next, not the end point, just what to do next.
Without the conspiracy theories, that seems much more plausible.